The International Energy Agency (IEA) is continuing its propaganda, predicting that oil demand will peak by 2029 and coupled with its prediction for an ongoing surplus of oil production capacity, “could usher in a lower oil price environment.” IEA predicted in its medium-term oil market report that spare oil capacity—the amount of pumping capacity left unused because of adequate supply—could surge in coming years to levels that occurred during the Covid-19 pandemic. The agency sees oil-demand growth beginning to contract in 2030, reaching 105.4 million barrels a day, up from just around 102 million barrels per day in 2023, as government mandates for “clean-energy” technologies accelerate. Meanwhile, it projects oil-production capacity to increase to nearly 113.8 million barrels a day, due to increased production by producers in the United States and the Americas.
This latest prediction follows a slate of similar reports issued under IEA head Fatih Birol, who has promoted “energy transition” policies, which were recently rejected by voters in the European Union elections. Voters in the E.U. showed their growing concern for the impact those policies are having on their lives and livelihoods, as energy costs have risen sharply and entire industries are under siege, risking deindustrialization.
Birol’s agency predicts that global oil demand in 2030 will rise by 3.2 million barrels a day from 2023 due to strong demand from countries in Asia, particularly India and China, and to increased use of jet fuel and feedstocks from the petrochemical sector. The demand rise is tempered by projections of rising electric-car sales, government fuel-efficiency regulations and the use of renewables for electricity generation. Clearly, the agency is believing that government mandates for electric vehicles will force automakers to manufacture them and consumers to buy them. That trend is obviously having problems as consumers have become less enthralled with electric autos due to a lack of charging stations and inadequate range so automakers are losing money on their production.
In advanced economies, IEA expects oil demand to fall from around 45.7 million barrels per day in 2023 to 42.7 million barrels per day in 2030, believing that those nations will incorporate policy changes to advance toward their Paris climate accord goals, although IEA’s report was compiled prior to the E.U. elections, which may result in different future projections. Excluding the pandemic, the last time that oil demand was that low was in 1991.
Meanwhile, IEA expects global production capacity growth to be led by producers outside of the OPEC+ alliance—particularly the United States, Brazil, Canada, Argentina and Guyana—which are forecast to account for three quarters of the expected increase to 2030. OPEC+ oil-production capacity is forecast to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day from 2023 through 2030, led by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq. According to the IEA, the group’s total oil market share dropped to 48.5 percent this year—the lowest since the alliance was formed in 2016—due to its voluntary output curbs.
IEA’s Short-Term Oil Forecast
In the short term, IEA reduced its 2024 forecast for global oil-demand growth to 960,000 barrels a day from previous estimates of 1.1 million barrels a day due to weak deliveries in OECD countries. IEA also reduced it 2025 oil-demand growth to 1 million barrels a day, down from 1.2 million barrels a day previously, because of lackluster economic growth, the increasing use of electric vehicles and efficiency gains. Total demand is expected to reach an average of 103.2 million barrels a day in 2024 and 104.2 million barrels a day in 2025.
IEA projects total oil supply to be higher than its last forecast, reaching an average of 102.9 million barrels a day in 2024 and 104.7 million barrels a day in 2025 from previous expectations of 102.7 million barrels a day and 104.5 million barrels a day, respectively. It expects non-OPEC+ countries to lead global supply, with oil production expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2024 and 1.5 million barrels a day in 2025.
IEA expects OPEC+ production to fall 740,000 barrels a day this year if the group keeps its voluntary output cuts in place, and to flip to a growth of 320,000 barrels a day in 2025. The cartel and its allies agreed to extend voluntary production curbs of 2.2 million barrels a day to the end of September and then to gradually unwind them from October 2024 to September 2025, contingent on market conditions.
Russian oil exports rose by 100,000 barrels a day in May to 7.7 million barrels a day, while export revenue fell 0.6 percent compared with the previous month to $16.8 billion. Russia’s oil production is expected to decrease by 260,000 barrels a day this year to 10.7 million barrels a day as the country carries out deeper OPEC+ production cuts, but supply is forecast to remain broadly steady through 2030 supported by the Vostok Oil project in the Arctic.
OPEC’s Forecast Is Quite Different from IEA’s
The cartel forecasts global oil-demand growth of 2.25 million barrels a day for 2024—more than twice IEA’s forecast demand growth–and 1.85 million barrels a day for 2025—0.85 million barrels per day higher than IEA’s forecast.
Other Forecasts
S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts global oil demand peaking at around 109 million barrels per day in 2034, with a gradual decline in the following years and only falling below 100 million barrels per day in 2050. Commodity Insights forecasts oil demand averaging 104.8 million barrels per day in 2024—higher even than OPEC’s forecast.
The Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook expects oil demand to rise by 1.1 million barrels per day this year to average 103 million barrel per day and 1.5 million barrels per day in 2025 to average 104.5 million barrels per day. The agency expects oil production growth to increase by 0.8 million barrels per day in 2024 to average 102.6 million barrels per day and 2.2 million barrels per day in 2025 to average 104.7 million barrels per day.
The Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook, published in October 2023, projects liquids demand to steadily grow through 2050, reaching 105.5 million barrels per day in 2030, 108.5 million barrels per day in 2035 and 121.5 million barrels per day in 2050. Most countries increase their liquids consumption, except for Western Europe, Japan, and South Korea. China increases its liquids consumption through 2035 to 17.8 million barrels per day and then it declines to 17.3 million barrels per day in 2050. On the supply side, there I enough oil, biofuels and natural gas liquids production to meet demand with OPEC returning to dominance in the last 15 years of the forecast.
Conclusion
The IEA is expecting global petroleum demand to peak in 2029 and then to begin to decline as Western nations making up its membership push electric vehicles and other “clean” technologies into the energy system. Not all forecasters share in IEA’s peak demand forecast, with the EIA seeing growth through 2050. In IEA’s forecast, there is over capacity on the supply side, which brings oil prices down, while in the EIA forecast, supply meets demand and oil prices are mostly in the $90+ range after 2030, reaching $101.8 in 2050 in real 2022 dollars. With these kinds of differences, one must question the motivation of the forecasting unit and if the forecast is based on what the agency would like to happen, i.e. if the policies assumed are realistic, especially since recent elections demonstrate that the citizenry of the E.U. is rejecting the energy poverty being created by policies advocated by IEA. Faith Birol, IEA’s leader continues to push forward policies in pursuit of his goal to become, as Time Magazine described, a “significant geopolitical player with a leading role in the energy transition.”
