Key Takeaways
Despite the installation of more and more wind turbines, wind production declined in July to a 33-month low.
Wind production also declined in 2023 from the year before despite 7 gigawatts of wind capacity being added to the grid that year.
With windmill capacity increasing due to subsidies and state mandates and wind power production declining, consumers are paying more but getting less.
The result has been record-breaking natural gas production to make up for the loss in wind generation.
The amount of electricity produced by U.S. wind facilities dropped to a 33-month low on July 22, forcing power generators to use natural-gas fired plants to meet electricity demand. Over the past few years, much of the investment in new generation has gone into renewable power sources like wind and solar, which are intermittent and do not produce energy when the wind stops blowing and the sun does not shine, forcing utilities to use dispatchable natural gas, which is the major source of power they can turn to quickly to provide more energy to maintain reliability. With power demand expected to keep growing as firms build more AI data centers and consumers use more electricity to power cars and heat homes and businesses, reliability is becoming increasingly important, particularly following blackouts during the February freeze in 2021 that left millions in Texas without power, heat and water for days.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), wind power in the Lower 48 states produced about 335,753 megawatt hours on July 22, the lowest since October 4, 2021. Wind facilities are expected to produce an average of 4 percent of power generation the week of July 20, down from 7 percent the previous week, 12 percent for the first 3 months of 2024 and 10 percent in 2023. Gas-fired power plants are producing an average of 48 percent of generationthe week of July 20, up from 46 percent the previous week, 41 percent for the first 3 months of 2024 and 43 percent in 2023. Wind power usually declines during the summer months, but this July has been a particularly bad month for wind. Six of the 10 lowest days for wind power so far this year have occurred in July. That compares with just two of the 10 lowest days during the same period in 2023. Wind produced 10 percent of the nation’s power in 2023 and is expected to produce about 11 percent in 2024 and 2025, according projections from EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook.
In 2023, wind power fell to 425.0 billion kilowatt-hours from a record high of 434.0 billion kilowatt hours in 2022–the first annual decline in wind power since 1998. EIA projects wind power will increase to 447.5 billion kilowatt hours in 2024. That decline in wind power output occurred despite energy firms bringing online new wind facilities. Energy firms have added about 53.3 gigawatts of wind capacity over the past five years (from 2019 to 2023), bringing total wind capacity up to around 147.6 gigawatts by the end of 2023, which is an average increase of about 9 percent a yearover the past five years. Last year’s wind additions were 7 gigawatts. The numbers show that despite heavy subsidies leading to more capacity being built, the amount of electricity produced has shrunk.
Larger Turbines Have Bigger Problems
Both onshore and offshore wind turbines have had problems with broken blades. Most recently, a broken wind turbine blade closed beaches on Nantucket, Massachusetts after sharp fiberglass and green foam washed up on shore. The federal government ordered the wind project to stop producing power until the cause of the break is determined and natural gas is being used to meet the demand from the lost turbine output.
Manufacturing defects are more common with newer wind technologies because developers are commissioning bigger turbines that can produce more power—and capture more government subsidies—at a lower marginal cost. Larger turbines are more difficult to install and manufacture than smaller ones but have a higher capacity factor, which means that they can produce more energy per unit of capacity than smaller turbines.
GE Vernova’s Haliade-X turbines are nearly as tall as the Eiffel Tower. Wind manufacturers GE Vernova and Siemens Gamesa have not only struggled with defects in offshore turbines, but with onshore turbines as well, with some toppling over and requiring expensive repairs. Siemens Energy announced that quality problems at its wind turbine unit would take years to fix, wiping over a third off its market value and dealing a blow to one of the world’s biggest suppliers of wind turbines. Siemens Energy saw $6.3 billion wiped off its market capitalization due to quality problems affecting its Siemens Gamesa wind turbine business. It could cost more than 1 billion euros ($1.09 billion) to fix flaws in rotor blades and bearings that could cause damage ranging from small cracks to component failures that would need to be replaced.
Renewable energy is not a panacea. Solar and wind require far more land or ocean space than fossil-fuel facilities, and their components are often trashed after 10 to 20 years, filling up landfills that can accept the huge blades or dumped elsewhere. The Biden-Harris administration has provided the tax subsidy a second time to wind turbines that have repowered, replacing their blades. Since the subsidy is obtained by producing wind energy but is time-limited, the Biden-Harris Administration’s tax interpretation effectively restarts the clock on subsidies for repowered windmills.Manufacturing solar panels and wind turbines also requires energy, largely from China, who dominates the renewable energy scene and generates over 50 percent of its electricity from coal. Wind turbines kill birds, including some endangered species, and noise from offshore turbines are accused of negatively affecting and even killing whales.
Suggestion for Blade Disposal
A suggestion for wind blade disposal is to use them to construct a border wall. Transporting blades intact to the borderoften in close proximity to wind generation farms (e.g., Texas, California) will eliminate the cost associated with deconstruction and chemical separation of materials. Massive wind graveyards, for example, have popped up on the outskirts of Sweetwater, Texas. The pile of wind blades covers more than thirty acres, in stacks rising as high as basketball backboards. Other used blades are being stored in ten acres a couple miles south of town, and in other locations in the county. Concrete pads compatible with current blade mounting provisions would need to be constructed so that the blades can be mounted vertically in a manner that creates an impassible barrier to prevent illegal migrant crossing.
Conclusion
The Biden-Harris administration wants 30 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030, but are likely to get only half that amount as problems are affecting the offshore wind energy, most recently on Nantucket, Massachusetts beaches, where debris from a broken wind turbine blade has washed ashore, closed the beaches and stopped wind construction and operation. The larger turbines being built today have more stress on their components that come with their size and weight, but can generate more electricity than the smaller versions. Wind, like hydropower, also has droughts in its resource availability causing less energy to be produced when the wind does not blow as fierce despite more wind capacity being added each year.
