Key Takeaways
China is using coal-fired electricity to be the workshop of the world, including supplying the demand of Western politicians for more renewable energy devices, in which China dominates.
From January to June, China produced 2.4 percent more electricity than the year before from coal, although growth was tempered by the return of hydroelectricity, which had a bad year in 2023 owing to drought.
China accounts for over 30 percent of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions, producing more than the United States, EU 27, Japan, South Korea and Brazil, combined, and their imports of thermal coal are hitting records.
Since China is responsible for 96 percent of the construction of new coal-fired generators at home and abroad, record coal consumption and attendant carbon dioxide emissions will likely increase, regardless of what politicians promise at their annual conventions of the UN’s IPCC.
China’s coal-fired power plants generated 59.6 percent of the country’s electricity in the first half of 2024. China’s coal-fired generation from January to June was 2,793.5 terawatt hours, which was 2.4 percent higher than the same months in 2023 and the highest amount for the first half of the year since at least 2015. The share of China’s total electricity generation from fossil fuels was 62.7 percent during the first half of 2024, compared to a 65 percent during the latter half of 2023 and 65.7 percent during the first half of 2023. China’s non-carbon electricity generation was 1,751.4 terawatt hours during the first half of 2024, almost 17 percent more than in the first half of 2023. Non-carbon power sources generated a record 37.3 percent of China’s total electricity during the first half of the year. Despite the country’s record share of non-carbon electricity, China, the world’s largest coal importer, imported record volumes of thermal coal in the first half of the year.
Non-Carbon Generation
Hydroelectric generation was the largest source of non-carbon electricity, generating 558.1 terawatt hours—almost 22 percent more than during the first half of 2023, and the highest during the first half of a year since at least 2015. China’s hydroelectric generation is rebounding from a weak, drought-affected 2023. China is the world’s largest hydroelectric producer.
Wind output also hit a record for January through June, generating 525.3 terawatt hours--10.4 percent more than the same months a year ago. Solar output during the first half of 2024 increased 39.4 percent from the same months a year ago to 378.4 terawatt hours. Output from China’s nuclear plants during the first half of 2024 was 212.26 terawatt hours–largely flat from a year ago, while production from bioenergy facilities was down by 6.2 percent to 77.3 terawatt hours.
Between 2018 and 2023, China’s non-carbon electricity generation capacity increased by 104 percent, compared to a 21 percent increase in fossil fuel generation capacity over the same period. Solar generation capacity expanded by an average annual rate of 30 percent from 2018 through 2023, while wind generation capacity has grown by an average rate of 18 percent a year over that period. Because of their intermittency, wind and solar produce only 25 percent to 40 percent of the power that coal can produce from the same amount of capacity.
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Power sector carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels was 2.826 billion metric tons during the first half of 2024–2.4 percent higher than the same months in 2023. During the past 5 years, the average annual pace of carbon dioxide emissions growth was 4 percent. Coal-fired output during the first half of 2024 was affected by reduced demand for heating and sluggish industrial electricity consumption. But China continues to increase coal-fired generation in order to manufacture energy transition goods for the West, including wind and solar component parts, that Western countries demand.
Asian Coal Imports
China’s imports of thermal coal from the seaborne market, used mainly to generate electricity, were 168.73 million metric tons in the first six months of the year, up 8.5 percent from 155.51 million in the same period in 2023. This was the strongest first half in China’s history. The main factor that may drive a moderation in China’s demand for seaborne thermal coal is a recovery in China’s domestic output, which had been softening amid ongoing mine safety inspections in key coal-producing regions. China’s coal production rebounded in June, with output of all grades of coal rising to a six-month high of 405.38 million tons, which was 3.6 percent above the same month in 2023. Another factor is that coal’s share in China’s electricity production is declining slightly as mentioned above.
Indonesia is China’s biggest supplier of thermal coal, with prices in the $50+ per ton range. Other Asian countries have also ramped up imports of seaborne thermal coal. Vietnam’s imports for the first seven months of 2024 were 26.48 million tons, up 44 percent from the same period last year. India, the world’s second-biggest coal importer, imported 104.81 million tons of thermal coal in the first seven months of this year, up 14.9 percent from the same period last year. Japan, the third-biggest buyer, saw thermal coal imports increase in July to 10.89 million tons, up 54 percent from June’s 7.05 million and the highest since January.
China’s Paris Climate Accord Pledge
China is the world’s biggest contributor to carbon dioxide emissions. As China’s economy rapidly expanded over the past two decades, using coal as its main energy source, its carbon dioxide emissions have overtaken the emissions output of the United States, comprising over 30 percent of the global carbon dioxide output. It now produces more carbon dioxide than the United States, the 27 EU nations, Japan, South Korea and Brazil combined. Despite those large emissions and growing coal use, China’s President Xi Jinping told the UN that his country would reach carbon neutrality by 2060.
As a developing country, China has been reluctant to take on targets to cut carbon emissions, arguing that the West should go first. Instead, China has focused on carbon intensity, the amount of carbon dioxide per unit of economic activity, which is easier to achieve than outright emissions reductions. Before the Copenhagen conference of the parties meeting (COP) in 2009, China pledged to cut its carbon intensity by 40 to 45 percent, compared to 2005 levels. At the end of 2017, China had cut carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 46 percent from the 2005 level. In the Paris Agreement, China promised to cut carbon intensity by 60 to 65 percent and to peak its emissions by 2030.
Since then, China has announced that energy security and reliability comes before an energy transition to non-carbon sources. In 2023, China was responsible for 96 percent of global coal power capacity construction and the country is the biggest coal builder in the world, building coal plants in other parts of the world. The country accounted for 68 percent of new coal generation capacity that came online last year and 81 percent of newly planned coal generation projects. China has the highest installed capacity of coal power plants in the world. As of July 2023, it operated coal plants with a combined capacity of 1,108.91 gigawatts. Government officials in China claim that most of the new coal capacity will operate as backup for wind and solar power, which cannot generate electricity round the clock, unlike coal power plants.
Conclusion
China is increasing its coal-fired generation in the first half of 2024, but at a slightly lower growth rate than in the past due to reduced demand for heating and sluggish industrial electricity consumption. China’s increased coal generation is used to manufacture goods for the West, including wind and solar component parts, that Western regulations and standards demand be used for their people. China has also increased its generation from non-carbon sources, led by hydroelectric power, which has recovered from its weak performance in 2023 due to a drought. China’s President Xi has pledged to be carbon neutral by 2060, but the country is still building coal-fired power plants that can operate for decades and has announced that energy security comes before an energy transition to non-carbon sources.
