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June 4, 2008

Cap & Trade Is Not A Market Solution

June 4, 2008
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By Robert P. Murphy, Economist

As the U.S. Senate debates climate change legislation this week, many have proclaimed the virtue of its “cap and trade” system as a “market solution” to reducing carbon emissions. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Unlike a direct tax, cap and trade is a European-style scheme that masks its negative consequences on the economy behind the rhetorical benefits of new government programs designed to help us.  In truth, neither is good for consumers or the economy, but a closer look reveals why so many politicians find comfort in cap and trade.

The economic argument for penalizing carbon emissions is straightforward.  If emissions from human activities are contributing to dangerous temperature increases as some scientists claim, then textbook theory says that the government should take steps to increase the private costs to those emitting carbon.  Markets are efficient only when firms take all costs of their behavior into account.

If one agrees so far, the next question is which mechanism should be used to raise the pain of carbon emissions?  One approach would have the government levy an outright tax.  This is favored by most economists, and a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis in February recommended a carbon tax because of its efficiency in meeting climate change targets.  But politicians shy away from the dreaded T-word, especially with the economy entering recession and energy prices hitting all-time highs.

Enter cap and trade, which gives only the illusion of reducing carbon emissions without imposing costs on the average citizen.  In this approach, the government distributes permits that entitle the holder to emit a specific quantity of carbon dioxide.  The trick is that these permits would be tradable in the market, just as surely as shares to IBM or contracts on copper futures.

This, unfortunately, is why some have mistakenly viewed a cap and trade program as a “market solution.”  Because the carbon permits are turned into property with a market price, they should end up in the hands of those who value them the most, i.e., the most efficient emitters.  In theory this means that a cap and trade system achieves a desired reduction in carbon emissions at the lowest possible compliance cost.

For example, if the government arbitrarily decreed that every firm had to reduce its carbon emissions by 10 percent, this would cause unnecessary economic damage, because it is much easier for some operations to scale back emissions than others.  If instead the government issued tradable permits allowing total emissions of 90 percent of the previous year’s amount, then the desired reduction would be much cheaper.  Those firms that could scale back more easily would do so, and would sell their permits to those firms that found it too expensive to cut emissions.  It is the elegance of this outcome that has hoodwinked market enthusiasts into supporting cap and trade.

Yet despite the superficial resemblance, cap and trade isn’t really a free market.  The number of permits is an arbitrary scarcity imposed by government fiat.  In the real market, resource prices indicate genuine scarcity.  If an oil pipeline is attacked, the price of oil goes up, causing industry and consumers to economize on the commodity.  This response is rational, because the available supply truly has gone down.

But if the prices of oil, coal, and other fossil fuels explode because of a cap and trade program, this won’t reflect genuine economic scarcity.  Consumers will be forced to restrict their use not because there is less supply available, but because of a number dreamed up by Washington bureaucrats.  This is no more a “market price” than if the government decided to sell people permits giving them permission to sneeze.  (This actually makes sense, since exhaling emits CO2.)

Cap and trade is not a market-based solution.  It relies on a political scheme to increase costs, and can therefore be justly viewed as a tax, stealthy or otherwise, on energy – the lifeblood of our economy.  So here’s the real difference: cap and trade masks the causes of higher consumer prices much better than a straightforward tax.  And that is precisely why so many politicians endorse it.

Murphy is an economist with the Institute for Energy Research.  He received his Ph.D. in economics from NYU.  He has written and lectured extensively on the benefits of market-oriented policies.


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  • http://www.edf.org/page.cfm?tagID=1085 That’s the point

    The whole point of the cap and trade IS to force an “arbitrary” reduction of CO2 emissions. Additional cost is inevitable. If we use up all the oil or destroy the ecosystem, the cost will be unfathomable. The science behind carbon dioxide and global warming is not nuclear physics, these are simple, demonstrable principles.

    The world’s governments could simply set emission limits for each industry and reduce them every year, fining anyone who doesn’t comply. This would NOT be a market solution, but pure regulation. Cap & Trade however, allows for each emitter to choose whether they want to invest in cleaner energy, or pay the real cost of those emissions.

    That’s something else Murphy completely ignores: the consumer (and even those NOT consuming) are already paying a price. It is an abstract price in the ecological effects of excess CO2 emissions. By assigning a market-driven cost, the emitters – and their consumers – are being held responsible for those costs.

    And yes, it is market driven. Let’s take Murphy’s example of permits being issued for 90% of the previous year’s emissions. If everyone reduces their emissions by 90%, then the extra cost is ZERO. Companies suddenly have an incentive to reduce their consumption. For example, it is extremely easy to turn off computers at night, but many companies have little incentive to enforce this.

    The U.S. already ran a cap & trade program for SO2(sulfur dioxide) in the 90s. Immediately, businesses cut down emissions and fell way below the threshold. For the next few years, they actually INCREASED emissions because they still had some flexibility, before the restrictions clamped down again. The total cost to the industries was between 20-30% of expectation.

  • http://www.edf.org/page.cfm?tagID=1085 That’s the point

    The whole point of the cap and trade IS to force an “arbitrary” reduction of CO2 emissions. Additional cost is inevitable. If we use up all the oil or destroy the ecosystem, the cost will be unfathomable. The science behind carbon dioxide and global warming is not nuclear physics, these are simple, demonstrable principles.

    The world’s governments could simply set emission limits for each industry and reduce them every year, fining anyone who doesn’t comply. This would NOT be a market solution, but pure regulation. Cap & Trade however, allows for each emitter to choose whether they want to invest in cleaner energy, or pay the real cost of those emissions.

    That’s something else Murphy completely ignores: the consumer (and even those NOT consuming) are already paying a price. It is an abstract price in the ecological effects of excess CO2 emissions. By assigning a market-driven cost, the emitters – and their consumers – are being held responsible for those costs.

    And yes, it is market driven. Let’s take Murphy’s example of permits being issued for 90% of the previous year’s emissions. If everyone reduces their emissions by 90%, then the extra cost is ZERO. Companies suddenly have an incentive to reduce their consumption. For example, it is extremely easy to turn off computers at night, but many companies have little incentive to enforce this.

    The U.S. already ran a cap & trade program for SO2(sulfur dioxide) in the 90s. Immediately, businesses cut down emissions and fell way below the threshold. For the next few years, they actually INCREASED emissions because they still had some flexibility, before the restrictions clamped down again. The total cost to the industries was between 20-30% of expectation.

  • uneedtogetreal

    cap and trade…green movement…war on drugs are programs that have already been proven not to work and will lead to our further demise…the cost…the corruption…and the lack of any progress they have caused is totally unbelieveable and could soon bring us to a point of no return…the so called green movement want work even if the entire world were on board…which they are not…this planet and all on it have been changing and evolving for millions of years with or without mankind…very narsacistic to think we have much control in the long run…only real hope is what got us to this point…research and development which requies power and energy…without it we would still be cave men and would have no concept of green other than to eat it…war on drugs for nearly 50 years and because of this giant worldwide blackmarket we have created by keeping very cheap products at very hi prices by keeping them illegal more money than all the bailouts combined has been spent and is continuing at over 25 billion each year…monsters all over the world have been created and these drug dealers and lords are powerful and worth billions with which to create more corruption in both law enforcement and politics…money enough to buy and control many large legal entities just like Al Capone and all the gangsters created during prohibition before alcohol was made legal…but these drug people make those gangsers look like leomonade stands…more drugs available today than 50 years ago and easier to get anywhere in the world…has created much more crime and swolen U.S.prison populations to unbareable numbers…make drugs leagal and the blackmarket dies with all related problems…we can then control and tax drugs like alcohol…if legal or not people that buy drugs will use them and commit crimes if highly priced like they have been doing for 50 years…just because legal are you going to buy them…me either and most others will not either…we will have the same problems that we now have with alcohol but an unbelieveable amount of money saved and the current much much worse problems that we have not been able to solve which in fact are getting worse and is leading us into totally uncontrolable problems in the near future because of all the money we are spending and the bad guys are making…tear down this blackmarket that we are responsible for maintaining…use all of our resources for power and energy to fund our Research and developement…wisely as possible but not under some false cap and trade or go green idiotic program that will cripple our ability to find real solutions that will work to help our problems…

  • http://msn uneedtogetreal

    cap and trade…green movement…war on drugs are programs that have already been proven not to work and will lead to our further demise…the cost…the corruption…and the lack of any progress they have caused is totally unbelieveable and could soon bring us to a point of no return…the so called green movement want work even if the entire world were on board…which they are not…this planet and all on it have been changing and evolving for millions of years with or without mankind…very narsacistic to think we have much control in the long run…only real hope is what got us to this point…research and development which requies power and energy…without it we would still be cave men and would have no concept of green other than to eat it…war on drugs for nearly 50 years and because of this giant worldwide blackmarket we have created by keeping very cheap products at very hi prices by keeping them illegal more money than all the bailouts combined has been spent and is continuing at over 25 billion each year…monsters all over the world have been created and these drug dealers and lords are powerful and worth billions with which to create more corruption in both law enforcement and politics…money enough to buy and control many large legal entities just like Al Capone and all the gangsters created during prohibition before alcohol was made legal…but these drug people make those gangsers look like leomonade stands…more drugs available today than 50 years ago and easier to get anywhere in the world…has created much more crime and swolen U.S.prison populations to unbareable numbers…make drugs leagal and the blackmarket dies with all related problems…we can then control and tax drugs like alcohol…if legal or not people that buy drugs will use them and commit crimes if highly priced like they have been doing for 50 years…just because legal are you going to buy them…me either and most others will not either…we will have the same problems that we now have with alcohol but an unbelieveable amount of money saved and the current much much worse problems that we have not been able to solve which in fact are getting worse and is leading us into totally uncontrolable problems in the near future because of all the money we are spending and the bad guys are making…tear down this blackmarket that we are responsible for maintaining…use all of our resources for power and energy to fund our Research and developement…wisely as possible but not under some false cap and trade or go green idiotic program that will cripple our ability to find real solutions that will work to help our problems…

  • Renee DeKlotz

    We strongly urge you to vote “NO” to theCap & Trade Climate and Energy Bill.

    The final Climate and Energy Bill passed the House so diluted with special interest bribes that It defeats what was represented to be its original objectives. Have you read the over 1,000 pages of the bill on which you are asked to sign? Cap & Trade is a prime example of the legislation which has been rushed through from the inception of the economic downtown with dire consequences to your constituents whom you are elected to represent.

    While avoiding the underlying question, the proposed legislation would have a trivial effect on global warming while imposing substantial costs to the American householders. While avoiding the underlying question, the proposed legislation would have a trivial effect on global warming while imposing substantial costs to the American householders. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that its resulting increase in consumer required to achieve l5% CO2 reduction will raise the cost of living initially by $1600 per year per household with future costs significantly higher. Higher prices will relate to every manufactured goods, companies moving offshore, resulting in fewer jobs and higher unemployment WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON GLOBAL WARMING.

    What effects does Cab & Trade have?

    1. It interferes with positive solutions to Global Warming/ Solving global warming means solving how to keep most remaining fossel fuels in the ground.

    2. It squanders resources and ingenuity on the wrong things. t squanders resources and ingenuity on the wrong things. S. Korea, the firm of Rhodia has profited 30% more selling carbon credits with NO GAINS.

    3. It requires knowledge we don’t have and interferes with positive solutions to Global Warming.. Progressive California calls carbon training a “charade to continue business as usual.” – more construction of new fossel fuel fired power plants instead of focusing on building a green economy to provide new jobs for power communities.

    4. It is based on faith not experience. Carbon trading – the centerpiece of the Kyoto Protocol and Europe’s response to climate change – the EU Emissions Trading Scheme has FAILED.

    5. Cap & Trade is Antidemocratic.

    WHO BENEFITS? Who Benefits? Big fossel fuel using companies; hedge funds, commodities traders, banks and law firms, i.e. ENRON, WorldCom, LTCM and the subprime mortgage market.

    WHO LOSES? Once again – the American people. Cap and Trade is likely to be the biggest tax in American history.

    Fred and Renee DeKlotz

  • Renee DeKlotz

    We strongly urge you to vote “NO” to theCap & Trade Climate and Energy Bill.

    The final Climate and Energy Bill passed the House so diluted with special interest bribes that It defeats what was represented to be its original objectives. Have you read the over 1,000 pages of the bill on which you are asked to sign? Cap & Trade is a prime example of the legislation which has been rushed through from the inception of the economic downtown with dire consequences to your constituents whom you are elected to represent.

    While avoiding the underlying question, the proposed legislation would have a trivial effect on global warming while imposing substantial costs to the American householders. While avoiding the underlying question, the proposed legislation would have a trivial effect on global warming while imposing substantial costs to the American householders. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that its resulting increase in consumer required to achieve l5% CO2 reduction will raise the cost of living initially by $1600 per year per household with future costs significantly higher. Higher prices will relate to every manufactured goods, companies moving offshore, resulting in fewer jobs and higher unemployment WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON GLOBAL WARMING.

    What effects does Cab & Trade have?

    1. It interferes with positive solutions to Global Warming/ Solving global warming means solving how to keep most remaining fossel fuels in the ground.

    2. It squanders resources and ingenuity on the wrong things. t squanders resources and ingenuity on the wrong things. S. Korea, the firm of Rhodia has profited 30% more selling carbon credits with NO GAINS.

    3. It requires knowledge we don’t have and interferes with positive solutions to Global Warming.. Progressive California calls carbon training a “charade to continue business as usual.” – more construction of new fossel fuel fired power plants instead of focusing on building a green economy to provide new jobs for power communities.

    4. It is based on faith not experience. Carbon trading – the centerpiece of the Kyoto Protocol and Europe’s response to climate change – the EU Emissions Trading Scheme has FAILED.

    5. Cap & Trade is Antidemocratic.

    WHO BENEFITS? Who Benefits? Big fossel fuel using companies; hedge funds, commodities traders, banks and law firms, i.e. ENRON, WorldCom, LTCM and the subprime mortgage market.

    WHO LOSES? Once again – the American people. Cap and Trade is likely to be the biggest tax in American history.

    Fred and Renee DeKlotz

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